River did publish this model, and the numbers in the Instagram post match it. In River's own words, "We estimate these portfolios will, over time, make average allocations of 2–4% to bitcoin, in line with guidance from Wall Street's largest firms. Against a global financial asset base of roughly $333 trillion, that implies $1.3–5.3 trillion of net inflows over the next three to five years." River then applies a conversion step: "At a 3X multiple, inflows of $1.3-5.3 trillion imply a bitcoin market value of $5.5–17.5 trillion. This equates to roughly $250,000 to $840,000 per coin, with the low end requiring nothing more than the current pace of adoption continuing." River also attached its own caveat: "This price model relies on simple assumptions that could prove wrong for multiple reasons. Capital inflows to bitcoin (and bitcoin's corresponding price) could fall short of, or exceed, the ranges indicated in this analysis."

Independent reconstruction of the arithmetic confirms the chain and identifies its weakest link. The calculation starts from the $333 trillion in global financial wealth estimated by BCG for 2025, a figure that measures a stock of financial assets rather than liquidity ready for investment.

River then applies a multiplier of three, so inflows would produce an increase of $3.9 trillion to $15.9 trillion, and the resulting market capitalisations of $5.5 trillion to $17.5 trillion imply an initial base of about $1.6 trillion; the highest scenario requires every assumption to reach its upper limit.

The multiplier is the most uncertain step, and economists Xavier Gabaix and Ralph Koijen estimated that one dollar invested in US equities increases their value by about five dollars. Coverage records the historical basis for the multiplier: previous cycles produced market-value increases of about $4.50, $3.30 and $3.10 for each dollar of net inflows, and River used a conservative 3x figure.

The adoption inputs trace to a survey, not to River's own data. The adoption thesis starts with the Bitwise/VettaFi 2026 survey of 299 US financial advisers.

Financial advisers holding bitcoin rose from 22% in 2024 to 32% in 2025, and 29 of the top 30 US investment advisers now hold bitcoin, though allocations stay small. The 0.008% figure is River's own: "Today, investment advisors as a whole have just a 0.008% allocation to bitcoin. But this allocation is beginning to change."

River describes RIAs as overseeing approximately $146 trillion in client assets.

On the base rate for six-figure bitcoin targets: Bitcoin peaked at approximately $124,414 in October 2025, roughly 20% to 40% below where most analysts expected the cycle to top out, and targets from Tom Lee ($150,000 to $250,000), Robert Kiyosaki ($250,000), Arthur Hayes ($250,000) and Tim Draper ($250,000) were not reached, while calls from Adam Back ($500,000 to $1,000,000) and PlanB's stock-to-flow model ($250,000 to $1,000,000) missed by wider margins.

After a string of high-profile forecasts proved inaccurate in 2025, analysts now frame projections as scenario ranges rather than promises. Separately, the stock-to-flow precedent is instructive: S2FX projected a market value of $5.5 trillion, roughly $288,000 per bitcoin, and this did not materialise; as of mid-2026 bitcoin's market cap sits well below $2 trillion.