§ Claim under review · Fact
"Goldman Sachs y JP Morgan recortaron sus proyecciones de crecimiento económico para Argentina, señalando que el modelo económico actual genera más dólares pero menos empleo"
Verdict
Partially accurate but misleading
Confidence
MediumSummary
This post is partly right and partly overstated. Goldman Sachs did cut its 2026 growth forecast for Argentina, from 3% to 2.7%, reported on 24 and 25 July 2026, and a further cut to 2% was reported by one outlet on 1 or 2 September 2026. I found no evidence that JP Morgan cut its growth forecast at all, and no JP Morgan figure appears in any source I could retrieve, so half of the headline is unverified. The line about the model generating more dollars but less employment is the news outlet's own phrasing, not a retrieved bank quotation, and what the banks were reported as saying is narrower: growth is concentrated in sectors that employ relatively few people. The underlying employment weakness is real by official measures, with registered private employment falling for three straight months to May 2026 and around 110,000 fewer registered workers than a year earlier. The post also leaves out that the same Goldman note praised fiscal balance, reserve accumulation and the trade position, and dropped a third bank, Santander, that appeared in the original article. The bank research notes themselves are not public, so everything here rests on press descriptions of them. General information only, not financial advice.
The readings
key figures from the evidenceGoldman Sachs 2026 Argentina growth forecast after July cut
Fewer registered private workers year on year, May 2026 (SIPA)
Why this verdict
Evidence
A Goldman Sachs forecast cut is documented. In late July 2026, multiple outlets reported that Goldman Sachs lowered its 2026 Argentina GDP growth forecast from 3% to 2.7% and flagged a possible second-quarter contraction, after April and May indicators came in below expectations. The same reporting records that Goldman kept a favourable view of the programme overall, citing fiscal balance, reserve accumulation and an improving trade position, and said Argentina remains on the right macroeconomic path while noting political and social challenges. It also projected inflation ending 2026 near 29%.
The September article the post reproduces states that Goldman Sachs cut its 2026 projection further, to 2%, and that the conclusion about growth failing to translate into employment, credit and consumption comes from recent reports by three banks: Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Santander. That article attributes to the banks the wording that the recovery "quedó concentrada en actividades con una participación relativamente baja en el mercado laboral," meaning growth is concentrated in activities with a relatively low share of the labour market. In the material I retrieved, JP Morgan is quoted on the external sector, specifically that July marked the thirty-second consecutive monthly trade surplus, and elsewhere on expecting a balanced financial budget for 2026. I found no retrievable JP Morgan growth-forecast number, old or new, and no independent reporting chain showing a JP Morgan cut. The 2% figure that appears alongside the article is also attributed in the same text to Facimex Valores, a local broker, which moved from about 2.5% to about 2%.
On the market-wide direction, the central bank's REM survey is consistent with downward revisions: the July 2026 round, published on 2026-08-06, put median 2026 growth at 2.7%, down 0.4 percentage points from the prior round.
On employment, official administrative data supports weakness. SIPA records show registered private employment falling for a third consecutive month in May 2026, down about 0.1% month on month, with roughly 110,000 fewer registered workers than a year earlier, and salaried dependent private employment contracting for twelve straight months. INDEC's first-quarter 2026 labour input account shows total jobs up 0.9% year on year while registered salaried jobs fell 1.1% and unregistered salaried jobs rose 3.4%.
Findings
✓ What's accurate 5
- Goldman Sachs did lower its 2026 Argentina growth forecast, from 3% to 2.7%, reported on 2026-07-24 and 2026-07-25 by several independent outlets.
- Downward revision of 2026 Argentine growth expectations is a real and broad phenomenon, not an invention: the BCRA's REM median fell to 2.7% in the round published 2026-08-06.
- Major banks did publish notes describing an economy with a strong external position, including a run of consecutive monthly trade surpluses, alongside weak activity, credit and consumer confidence.
- The employment weakness is corroborated by official data: registered private employment fell for three consecutive months to May 2026 and was down about 110,000 year on year, with registered salaried jobs down 1.1% year on year in 1Q 2026.
- The description of growth concentrated in primary and energy sectors with a low share of the labour market is attributed to the banks in the origin reporting and is consistent with the trade and employment data.
≈ What's misleading 4
- Exaggeration: the post says both banks cut their forecasts. Only a Goldman Sachs cut is documented across independent sources. No JP Morgan growth-forecast figure, before or after, was retrievable, and the JP Morgan material I found concerns the trade surplus and the fiscal balance rather than a GDP revision. The claim treats one verified cut and one unverified cut as equally established.
- Quote manipulation: "señalando que el modelo económico actual genera más dólares pero menos empleo" reads as a bank statement. The wording attributed to the banks in the origin article is narrower: the recovery is concentrated in activities with a relatively low share of the labour market, and the gains have not yet translated into more employment, credit and consumption. "Has not yet produced more employment" and "produces less employment" are different propositions, even though separate official data does show registered employment falling.
- Omitted qualifier: the same Goldman note that carried the cut also stated the economy is expanding at a moderate pace, praised fiscal balance, reserve accumulation and the trade position, and said Argentina remains on the correct macroeconomic path. The post carries only the negative half. It also drops Santander, the third bank in the origin article, and drops the size of the cut, which at 3.0% to 2.7% was modest.
- Repetition is not verification: the September story appears in multiple Argentine outlets, but the versions I retrieved trace to a single original iProfesional article. Volume of republication adds no independent confirmation of the JP Morgan element.
? What's uncertain 4
- Whether JP Morgan cut its Argentina growth forecast at all, and from what level to what level. Not established in any source I retrieved.
- Whether Goldman Sachs moved from 2.7% to 2.0%. This appears in the origin article as of 2026-09-01/02 but I could not corroborate it independently, and the same article attributes a 2% figure to a different institution, Facimex Valores, which creates conflation risk.
- The exact wording of both banks' notes. Neither research note is publicly posted, so every characterisation here is press paraphrase rather than a primary record.
- Whether the banks themselves drew a causal link between the export-led configuration and employment, as opposed to describing the two facts side by side.
Sources
9 of 9 linked to recordsGoldman Sachs 2026 Argentina forecast cut, reported by MercoPress, 2026-07-25
Ámbito Financiero on the same Goldman Sachs note, 2026-07-24
BCRA Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (REM), July 2026 round, published 2026-08-06, consensus 2026 growth cut to 2.7%
Reuters wire report on that REM round (via Investing.com), 2026-08-06
iProfesional, "Goldman Sachs y JP Morgan recortan crecimiento de Argentina: más dólares, pero menos empleo", circa 2026-09-01/02
Primera Edición, same story, circa 2026-09-02
SIPA registered-employment data reported by El Eco de Tandil, circa 2026-08
El Cronista on INDEC "Cuenta de generación del ingreso e insumo de mano de obra, 1T 2026", circa 2026-08-30
iProfesional, "JP Morgan y Goldman Sachs celebran el superávit, pero dos señales preocupan", circa 2026-08-27