§ Claim under review · Fact
"Stocks really do underperform during Mercury Retrograde, just not for the reason you think. A finance study found that stock returns are 3.33 percent lower per year during Mercury Retrograde periods. Mercury Retrograde ends today, and the real explanation isn't astrology. Traders who believe Mercury Retrograde is bad for financial decisions hold back from opening new positions during those weeks. Fewer buyers means prices drift lower, not because of the planet, but because of the pause. Researchers found the same pattern across all 48 countries in the data. ... 160,000 clients connected their investment accounts and are trading over $1.2B total."
Verdict
Partially accurate but misleading
Confidence
MediumSummary
The study behind this ad is real. Researchers Qi, Wang and Zhang wrote a working paper finding that stock index returns were about 3.33% lower on an annualized basis during Mercury Retrograde periods across 48 countries from 1973 to 2019, and they proposed that superstitious investors pulling back explains it. Two things in the ad go beyond the paper. First, the paper does not find the same pattern in all 48 countries; it reports a cross-country average and specifically finds the effect is stronger in countries with more ancient Greek cultural influence. Second, the paper offers its belief-based mechanism as a proposed explanation supported by indirect evidence such as Google search interest, not as a proven cause. The ad also omits that the paper appears to be an unpublished working paper circulating in versions with different headline numbers of 3.22%, 3.33% and 3.47%, and that other research on the same question reaches conflicting results. Separately, as of 17 September 2026 no Mercury Retrograde period was ending, since the 2026 periods run 26 February to 20 March, 29 June to 23 July, and 24 October to 13 November. Autopilot Advisers, LLC is genuinely SEC-registered per its own Form CRS dated 4 February 2026, but the 160,000-client and $1.2 billion figures are self-reported and could not be verified against any filing. General information only, not financial advice.
The readings
key figures from the evidenceannualized stock return differential during Mercury Retrograde, 2021 AUT version
same study, earlier working paper version estimate
same study, April 2022 SSRN version estimate
Why this verdict
Evidence
The study exists and the number is real. The paper states that it regresses market index returns on an indicator variable for Mercury Retrograde periods using a sample of 48 countries between January 1, 1973 and October 31, 2019 , and reports that stock market returns are annually 3.33% lower during Mercury Retrograde periods than in other periods . The same paper circulates in multiple versions with different point estimates: an earlier version states the gap is about 3.22% annually lower than those in other periods , and the April 2022 SSRN version states stock market returns are 3.47% lower annually during Mercury Retrograde periods than in other periods .
On mechanism, the authors propose rather than demonstrate a channel: investors who hold an astrological belief that Mercury Retrograde can destroy their decision making will stay away from the market. This effect results in a higher risk premium required by remaining investors in sharing more risk . The belief proxy is search behaviour: they use Google Trends' search volume intensity for the topic "Retrograde motion" to capture investors' belief .
On the "all 48 countries" point, the paper reports the opposite of uniformity. It states that countries with an ex ante influence of ancient Greek culture have a stronger Mercury Retrograde effect on equity prices , and the SSRN version describes the result as a culture-based investor belief channel . A cross-country average plus documented cross-country heterogeneity is not the same finding as "the same pattern in all 48 countries."
The literature is not settled. A separate Indian study reports that Mercury retrograde positively impacts Nifty50 and BSE Sensex market returns , and another paper frames the question as whether the usually described phenomenon of the retrogratory effect of planets holds at all in Indian indices.
On timing, published 2026 retrograde tables agree: Mercury will be in retrograde three times in 2026. The first time is from February 26 to March 20. The second is from June 29 to July 23. The third and final time is from October 24 to November 13. The Old Farmer's Almanac concurs that the next retrograde starts on October 24, 2026, and lasts until November 13, 2026 . As of 2026-09-17, no Mercury Retrograde period is in progress and none ends on that date.
On the advertiser, SEC registration is confirmed by the filing of record: Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot") is an investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and provides investment advisory accounts and services , in a Form CRS dated 4 February 2026. The specific figures of 160,000 clients and over $1.2 billion in connected accounts were not located in any filing or independent source; third-party commentary describes the app in general terms only, for example that as of early 2025, reports indicate the app has surpassed 3 million downloads and manages billions in connected assets , which is promotional-grade and does not corroborate the two specific numbers.
Findings
✓ What's accurate 5
- A real academic working paper on this exact topic exists, by Yanling Qi, Hang Wang and Bohui Zhang.
- The figure 3.33% appears verbatim in one version of that paper's abstract.
- The sample really does cover 48 countries, from January 1973 to October 2019.
- The authors really do propose a belief-based explanation rather than a physical or astrological one, and really do argue that believers stepping back from the market is the mechanism.
- Autopilot Advisers, LLC is in fact registered with the SEC as an investment adviser, per its own Form CRS on the SEC's adviserinfo system.
≈ What's misleading 6
- Exaggeration: the post says researchers "found the same pattern across all 48 countries in the data." The paper reports a pooled average across a 48-country panel and explicitly finds the effect varies by country, being stronger where ancient Greek cultural influence is greater. A panel average is not a per-country result, and the paper's own cultural-heterogeneity finding depends on the effect not being uniform.
- Omitted qualifier: the post calls it "a finance study" without noting that it is an unpublished working paper with no peer-reviewed journal publication found, that it circulates in at least three versions with three different headline numbers (3.22%, 3.33%, 3.47%), and that its sample stops in October 2019.
- Causal overreach: the post states the mechanism as settled ("Fewer buyers means prices drift lower... because of the pause"). The paper proposes a belief channel supported by indirect proxies including Google Trends search intensity, and frames it as an explanation consistent with the data, not as a demonstrated cause. The paper's own version of the story is a risk-premium argument, which is not the same as a simple buyer-drought story.
- Annualised vs cumulative: "3.33 percent lower per year during Mercury Retrograde periods" invites the reading that a holder loses 3.33 percentage points of annual return. The estimate is an annualized rate differential measured on retrograde days, and retrograde periods occupy roughly a fifth of the calendar year, so the implied drag over a full year is a fraction of 3.33 points. The post's phrasing mirrors the paper's abstract, but the ad context makes the misreading more likely.
- Date context mismatch: the post asserts "Mercury Retrograde ends today." Published 2026 retrograde tables place the periods at 26 Feb to 20 Mar, 29 Jun to 23 Jul and 24 Oct to 13 Nov. As of 2026-09-17 no retrograde period is running or ending. If the copy was written on 23 July 2026 the line would have been correct then; presented now, it is not.
- Cherry picked window: the post presents one working paper as the state of knowledge. Other published work on the same question reports conflicting results, including a study finding Mercury retrograde associated with higher returns in Indian indices.
? What's uncertain 5
- Whether the paper has since been accepted or published in a peer-reviewed journal. Searches found only working paper and SSRN versions; the search budget for this investigation was exhausted before that could be settled.
- Which version of the paper the advertiser drew from. The 3.33% figure matches the 2021 AUT version, while the most recent SSRN version reports 3.47%.
- The 160,000 clients and "over $1.2B" figures. These were not found in any SEC filing or independent source. They are advertiser self-reported and unverified here, and Form ADV Part 1 client and regulatory-assets figures were not retrieved.
- The original publication date of the ad copy, which determines whether the "ends today" line was accurate when written.
- Whether the effect survives out of sample after October 2019, and whether it survives standard multiple-testing corrections applied to calendar anomalies generally.
Sources
8 of 8 linked to recordsQi, Wang and Zhang, "Long Live Hermes! Mercury Retrograde and Equity Prices," working paper PDF hosted by the Auckland Centre for Financial Research (text excerpts retrieved)
Same paper, earlier version PDF hosted by SJTU ACEM (text excerpts retrieved), reporting 3.22%
Qi, Wang, Zhang, "Cultural Beliefs and Equity Prices: Evidence from Astrological Belief in Mercury Retrograde," SSRN abstract dated 4 April 2022, reporting 3.47%
University of Macau seminar abstract for the same paper (3.22% version)
Autopilot Advisers, LLC Form CRS, dated 4 February 2026, on the SEC's adviserinfo system
Britannica answer page listing 2026 Mercury retrograde dates
Old Farmer's Almanac Mercury retrograde dates page (next period begins 24 October 2026)
Murgea, "Mercury Retrograde Effect in Capital Markets: Truth or Illusion?" and "Financial Astrology and Behavioral Bias: Evidence from India"